An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Learning with uncertainty covers a broad range of scenarios in machine learning, this book mainly focuses on: (1) Decision tree learning with uncertainty, (2) Clustering under uncertainty environment, (3) Active learning based on uncertainty criterion, and (4) Ensemble learning in a framework of uncertainty. The book starts with the introduction to uncertainty including randomness, roughness, fuzziness and non-specificity and then comprehensively discusses a number of key issues in learning with uncertainty, such as uncertainty representation in learning, the influence of uncertainty on the performance of learning system, the heuristic design with uncertainty, etc. Most contents of the book are our research results in recent decades. The purpose of this book is to help the readers to understand the impact of uncertainty on learning processes. It comes with many examples to facilitate understanding. The book can be used as reference book or textbook for researcher fellows, senior undergraduates and postgraduates majored in computer science and technology, applied mathematics, automation, electrical engineering, etc.

Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the First International Workshop on Uncertainty for Safe Utilization of Machine Learning in Medical Imaging, UNSURE 2019, and the 8th International Workshop on Clinical Image-Based Procedures, CLIP 2019, held in conjunction with MICCAI 2019, in Shenzhen, China, in October 2019. For UNSURE 2019, 8 papers from 15 submissions were accepted for publication. They focus on developing awareness and encouraging research in the field of uncertainty modelling to enable safe implementation of machine learning tools in the clinical world. CLIP 2019 accepted 11 papers from the 15 submissions received. The workshops provides a forum for work centred on specific clinical applications, including techniques and procedures based on comprehensive clinical image and other data.

How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Are ordinary people able to reason with risk? Detailing case histories and examples, this text presents readers with tools for understanding statistics. In so doing, it encourages us to overcome our innumeracy and empowers us to take responsibility for our own choices.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.

"This book captures the experiences and evidence among teachers in exploring the possibility of active students' participation in curriculum design, delivery and assessment through teacher-learner partnership. This publication can be used by academia to explore the effectiveness of co-created curricula to the traditional teacher-created curricula"--