The annual Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic performance in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Growth prospects in the region are upbeat, buoyed by favorable demand at home and abroad. A strong performance in 2017 reflected a surge in exports, which will likely abate this year and next, and rapidly expanding domestic demand. While the outlook is for steady growth, risks to it are decidedly on the downside: Trade friction could weaken recently deepened trade links, tightening US monetary policy could diminish investment in developing Asia, and rising domestic private debt may hamper growth. New technologies drive higher productivity, the foundation for economic growth, better-paid jobs, and poverty reduction. The latest technologies in robotics and artificial intelligence may threaten some jobs, however, and leave less-skilled workers behind. To maximize gains in productivity while safeguarding social welfare, governments in developing Asia should protect workers but not preserve particular jobs. Meanwhile, they should facilitate the countervailing forces in new technologies that generate new jobs. Dealing with the downsides of new technology requires synchronized effort on skills development, labor regulation, social protection, and income redistribution.

Growth in developing Asia is holding up against external headwinds. Robust domestic demand supported the region's large economies, and oil prices above expectations boosted prospects for many oil and gas exporters. Consumer prices are picking up with rising global fuel and food prices, but moderate inflation in several Asian economies has kept the regional average in check. Downside risks to the outlook are intensifying. If tightened more than investors expect, US monetary policy could accelerate capital outflow from Asian economies and put further depreciation pressure on regional currencies. Any escalation of the trade conflict could disrupt cross-border production links. Most economies remain robust, but policy makers must be ready to respond. In the years since the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998, sound domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and buoyant external conditions have supported developing Asia's rise to become an engine of the global economy. However, the changing global landscape poses new challenges to the maintenance of macroeconomic stability. This Update explores the key pockets of vulnerability and the policy options available to manage them. To fortify the region against heightened uncertainty, policy makers may need to deploy the full range of policy tools, while forging and safeguarding the sound fundamentals that support economic, social, and political stability.

The global implications of China's rise as a global actor In 2005, a senior official in the George W. Bush administration expressed the hope that China would emerge as a “responsible stakeholder” on the world stage. A dozen years later, the Trump administration dramatically shifted course, instead calling China a “strategic competitor” whose actions routinely threaten U.S. interests. Both assessments reflected an underlying truth: China is no longer just a “rising” power. It has emerged as a truly global actor, both economically and militarily. Every day its actions affect nearly every region and every major issue, from climate change to trade, from conflict in troubled lands to competition over rules that will govern the uses of emerging technologies. To better address the implications of China's new status, both for American policy and for the broader international order, Brookings scholars conducted research over the past two years, culminating in a project: Global China: Assessing China's Growing Role in the World. The project is intended to furnish policy makers and the public with hard facts and deep insights for understanding China's regional and global ambitions. The initiative draws not only on Brookings's deep bench of China and East Asia experts, but also on the tremendous breadth of the institution's security, strategy, regional studies, technological, and economic development experts. Areas of focus include the evolution of China's domestic institutions; great power relations; the emergence of critical technologies; Asian security; China's influence in key regions beyond Asia; and China's impact on global governance and norms. Global China: Assessing China's Growing Role in the World provides the most current, broad-scope, and fact-based assessment of the implications of China's rise for the United States and the rest of the world.

This volume will explore the role of India and China in regional geopolitics, with a focus on Southeast Asia. It highlights some of the key events and turning points in the evolving equations since the times of Jawaharlal Nehru, Indias first prime minister. In six chapters, it shows how Indias prominent position in devising the regional architecture in Asia was diluted after the Bandung era, especially after the Indo-China war in 1962. The author maintains that, relative to its earlier status as a major champion of Asian regionalism, India had become a political and diplomatic non-entity, if not a pariah, in Southeast Asia by the 1980s. While China emerged as the most important political entity in the region over the next three decades, India gradually made substantial inroads into the ASEAN scene, more so after its emergence as a 'rising' power in the post-Cold War era and economic reforms of 1991. 00This book revisits the question of contemporary Asian security from an Indian vantage point, posing critical questions about the future of regional leadership in Southeast Asia, and demonstrating how it depends as much on the India-China-Southeast Asia relationship as on China-US-Japan relations.

The annual Asian Development Outlook, now in its 30th year, analyzes economic performance in the past year and forecasts performance in the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Growth prospects in developing Asia remain strong despite persistent external headwinds responsible for moderating expansion since 2017. Global trade and economic activity weakened toward the end of 2018, slowing growth in many economies in the region. The outlook is cloudy with risks that tilt to the downside. A drawn-out trade conflict could undermine trade and investment in the region, and US fiscal policy and the consequences of a disorderly Brexit could weigh on growth in the advanced economies and the People's Republic of China. Though the risk of sharp increases in US interest rates has subsided, policy makers must stay vigilant. Disasters are shaped by natural hazards and the dynamics of the economy, society, and environment in which they occur. They pose a growing threat to development and prosperity in the region, their consequences disproportionately severe in developing countries, especially for the poor and marginalized. As developing Asia is home to more than four-fifths of the people affected by disasters globally in the past 2 decades, the region must strengthen its disaster resilience. This means integrating disaster risk reduction into national development and investment plans, spending more on prevention for a better balance with spending on rescue and recovery, and pooling risk through insurance and reinsurance.

Will the nations of Southeast Asia maintain their strategic autonomy, or are they destined to become a subservient periphery of China? This book’s expert authors address this pressing question in multiple contexts. What clues to the future lie in the modern history of Sino-Southeast Asian relations? How economically dependent on China has the region already become? What do Southeast Asians think of China? Does Beijing view the region in proprietary terms as its own backyard? How has the relative absence, distance, and indifference of the United States affected the balance of influence between the US and China in Southeast Asia? The book also explores China’s moves and Southeast Asia’s responses to them. Does China’s Maritime Silk Road through Southeast Asia herald a Pax Sinica across the region? How should China’s expansionary acts in the South China Sea be understood? How have Southeast Asian states such as Vietnam and the Philippines responded? How does Singapore’s China strategy compare with Indonesia’s? How relevant is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations? To what extent has China tried to persuade the “overseas Chinese” in Southeast Asia to identify with “'the motherland” and support its aims? How are China’s deep involvements in Cambodia and Laos affecting the economies and policies of those countries? “This rich collection,” writes renowned author-journalist Nayan Chanda, answers these and other questions while offering “fresh insights” and “new information and analyses” to explain Southeast Asia’s relations with China.

Now in a fully revised and updated edition, this cogent book provides an overview of the historical context and enduring patterns of U.S. relations with Asia. Noted scholar Robert G. Sutter offers a balanced analysis of post–Cold War dynamics in Asia, which involve interrelated questions of security, economics, national identity, and regional institution building. He demonstrates how these critical concerns manifest a complex mix of realist, liberal, and constructivist tendencies that define the regional order. He describes how the United States has responded to Asia’s growing strength and importance while at the same time trying to maintain its leading position as an Asian power despite China’s rising influence. Considering the most important transition in American policy toward Asia since the end of the Cold War, Sutter assesses the growing U.S.-China rivalry that now dominates both regional dynamics in the Asia-Pacific and U.S. policy in the region.

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The audited consolidated financial statements of the International Monetary Fund as of April 30, 2019 and 2018