Against the backdrop of an East African city, an impossible romance between an Indian widower and a married Belgian woman unfolds under the most unlikely circumstances.

"What are the odds against winning the Lotto, The Weakest Link, or Who Wants to be a Millionaire? The answer lies in the science of probability, yet many of us are unaware of how this science works. Every day, people make judgements on a wide variety of situations where chance plays a role, including buying insurance, betting on horse-racing, following medical advice - even carrying an umbrella. In Taking Chances, John Haigh guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better-informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on top television shows, plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers."--BOOK JACKET.

This book offers a student friendly review of recent research in the application of cognitive methods, theories and models to real-world scenarios.

Since its original publication in 2000, Game Theory Evolving has been considered the best textbook on evolutionary game theory. This completely revised and updated second edition of Game Theory Evolving contains new material and shows students how to apply game theory to model human behavior in ways that reflect the special nature of sociality and individuality. The textbook continues its in-depth look at cooperation in teams, agent-based simulations, experimental economics, the evolution and diffusion of preferences, and the connection between biology and economics. Recognizing that students learn by doing, the textbook introduces principles through practice. Herbert Gintis exposes students to the techniques and applications of game theory through a wealth of sophisticated and surprisingly fun-to-solve problems involving human and animal behavior. The second edition includes solutions to the problems presented and information related to agent-based modeling. In addition, the textbook incorporates instruction in using mathematical software to solve complex problems. Game Theory Evolving is perfect for graduate and upper-level undergraduate economics students, and is a terrific introduction for ambitious do-it-yourselfers throughout the behavioral sciences. Revised and updated edition relevant for courses across disciplines Perfect for graduate and upper-level undergraduate economics courses Solutions to problems presented throughout Incorporates instruction in using computational software for complex problem solving Includes in-depth discussions of agent-based modeling

DNA evidence is widely used in the modern justice system. Statistical methodology plays a key role in ensuring that this evidence is collected, interpreted, analysed and presented correctly. This book is a guide to assessing DNA evidence and presenting that evidence in a courtroom setting. It offers practical guidance to forensic scientists with little dependence on mathematical ability, and provides the scientist with the understanding they require to apply the methods in their work. Since the publication of the first edition of this book in 2005 there have been many incremental changes, and one dramatic change which is the emergence of low template DNA (LTDNA) profiles. This second edition is edited and expanded to cover the basics of LTDNA technology. The author's own open-source R code likeLTD is described and used for worked examples in the book. Commercial and free software are also covered.

Rules governing taxis and private hire vehicles need urgent and wholesale reform. The problems posed by taxis and private hire vehicles (PHVs) operating outside of the district in which they are licensed - the phenomenon called 'cross-border hire' - cannot be solved without new legislation. In this report the Transport Committee puts forward its recommendations for such new legislation: listen to the views of users; keep it simple; keep it local: licensing should remain a local function; permit tighter restrictions on cross border hire; increase the potential for local authorities to work together to create larger licensing districts; and develop

Making a decision, of any importance, is never simple. On the one hand, specialists in decision theory do not come within the reach of most policy makers and, secondly, there are very few books on pragmatic decision that are not purely anecdotal. In addition, there is virtually no book that provides a link between decision-making and action. This book provides a bridge between the latest results in artificial intelligence, neurobiology, psychology and decision-making for action. What is the role of intuition or emotion? What are the main psychological biases of which we must be wary? How can we avoid being manipulated? What is the proper use of planning? How can we remain rational even if one is not an expert in probabilities? Perhaps more importantly for managers, how does one go from decision to action? So many questions fundamental to the practice of decision-making are addressed. This book dissects all issues that arise almost daily for decision-makers, at least for major decisions. Drawing on numerous examples, this book answers, in plain language and imagery, all your questions. The final chapter takes the form of a brief reminder - everything you have to remember to be a good decision-maker.

This book discusses the media, beliefs, the news, the Internet, etc. but it should not be seen as yet another critique of the media system, exploring with indignant fascination the idea of a machination against truth set up to serve a society of domination. These kinds of theories, whether they pertain to conspiracy theories or, more subtly, to a self-styled "critical" way of thinking, have always seemed to be the expression of a form of intellectual puerility. This is not to say that attempts at manipulating opinions do not occur, or that our world is free from compromised principles, or indeed corruption; far from it, but none of this is the key issue. In fact, reality can somehow be even more unsettling than those myths, however sophisticated they may be, that envisage the media system hand-in-hand with industry, science, and so forth, all in agreement so as to lead the "people" away from the truth. It is more unsettling because the processes described in this book and that allow falsehood and dubiousness to take hold of the public sphere are boosted by the development of IT, the workings of our minds, and the very nature of democracy. And finally, it is more unsettling because we are all responsible for what is going to happen to us.

Containing contributions from some of the leading figures in Europe on the paranormal, `Parapsychology' challenges and provokes readers with an up-to-the-minute examination of some of the most puzzling phenomena in psychology. Unlike previous works, the current volume invites readers to step into the shoes of scientists (believers and sceptics alike) to see not only how they must approach the array of weird and wonderful events that demand their attention, but also the tools that they use to do their job. An range of intriguing topics is considered including; dream telepathy, near death experiences, alien abductions, belief in astrology, placebo effects and awareness during anaesthesia and in comas. In addition readers have the opportunity to engage in experiments with the authors. Exploring these and other areas, the book bridges the gap between traditional psychology and its so called fringe areas, providing accessible accounts of how science works on the border of its last frontier: the human mind. `Parapsychology' is for readers from a variety of backgrounds; professionals in the field, students, lay readers and anyone who wants to understand what the paranormal can tell us about ourselves as we set out into 21st century. A variety of viewpoints are on offer, with the emphasis on the reader to make their own mind up. Prepared to be unsettled...

'Knowledge-First' constitutes what is widely regarded as one of the most significant innovations in contemporary epistemology in the past 25 years. Knowledge-first epistemology is the idea that knowledge per se should not be analysed in terms of its constituent parts (e.g., justification, belief), but rather that these and other notions should be analysed in terms of the concept of knowledge. This volume features a substantive introduction and 13 original essays from leading and up-and-coming philosophers on the topic of knowledge-first philosophy. The contributors' essays range from foundational issues to applications of this project to other disciplines including the philosophy of mind, the philosophy of perception, ethics and action theory. Knowledge First: Approaches in Epistemology and Mind aims to provide a relatively open-ended forum for creative and original scholarship with the potential to contribute and advance debates connected with this philosophical project.